سنجش سطوح توسعه یافتگی و نابرابری های فضایی در استان خراسان شمالی با استفاده از مدل منطق فازی

نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

پژوهش درمورد توسعه متعادل مناطق، از این جهت اهمیت دارد که نابرابری های فضایی، تأثیرات جبران ناپذیری بر جدایی گزینی مناطق خواهد گذاشت. بر این اساس هدف پژوهش حاضر، تحلیل و سنجش سطوح توسعه یافتگی و نابرابری های فضایی در یک نمونه تجربی(استان خراسان شمالی) است. روش پژوهش توصیفی- تحلیلی است و گستره مکانی تحقیق، کلیه شهرستان های استان خراسان شمالی با قلمرو اداری- سیاسی سال های 1365، 1375و 1385 می باشد. برای سنجش میزان نابرابری شهرستان های این استان، تعداد 61 زیرشاخص به کار گرفته شدند که با استناد به سالنامه های آماری سال های اشاره شده و در مواردی پرسش از ادارات مربوط و مراجعه به سایت ادارات تعریف شده اند. به منظور تجزیه و تحلیل شاخص ها از روش جدید منطق فازی استفاده شد؛ به این صورت که ابتدا داده ها در سه سطح پایگاه قوانین فازی بررسی شدند و در هر سال میزان توسعه یافتگی هر شهرستان مشخص شد و سپس با استفاده از روش ضریب اختلاف ویلیامسون روند نابرابری فضایی در استان تعیین شد. یافته های پژوهش نشان داد، طی سال های مذکور با وجود افزایش میزان توسعه یافتگی شهرستان های استان، همگرایی نسبی بین شهرستان ها به وجود نیامده است. به طور کلی از جمله دلایل اصلی نابرابری فضایی در استان خراسان شمالی می توان به شکل گیری نظام مرکز- پیرامونی و عدم توزیع بهینه امکانات با توجه به جمعیت هر شهرستان اشاره نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Evaluation of Development Levels and Spatial Inequalities in Northern Khorasan Province with Using Fuzzy Logic Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hashem Dadashpoor
  • Samaneh Alizadeh
  • Mojtaba Rafieian
چکیده [English]

Extended abstract
1- Introduction
The existence of regional inequalities in various geographical scopes and its different aspects are considered as one of the most important issues in regional planning. Spatial inequality in various aspects such as economic, social, cultural and infrastructural is disputable. Thus, understanding the situation of regions in different dimensions is a prerequisit for future development. This research intends to estimate the level of development and spatial inequalities between different counties of Khorasan-e-Shomali and analyze the trends of their inequality evolution in 1986, 1996 and 2006.
2- Theoretical framework
One of the most important indications of underdevelopment is the existing of inequality and its various aspects. In fact, a country is considered as developed when; besides having a high position in economic and social indicees, citizens also have a relatively fairly distributed income and facilities. Nowadays, there are some concerns with regard to inequality and its spatial aspects that require additional attention from scientists and policy makers. A lack of proper distribution in economical, social and cultural activities causes a gap and intensifies regional inequalities which are impediments in the developmental process. With respect to this point, the purpose of this research is to examine the concept of development in Khorasan-e-Shomali Province and to determine the amount of inequality and differences between its counties and to ultimately provide some solutions for the improvement of this trend.
3- Methodology
The research method usd in this paper is descriptive-analytic and the scope of research is all the counties of Khorasan-e-Shomali during 1986, 1996 and 2006. Since an equal and balanced development of geographical areas require accurate and comprehensive study in all its different dimensions61 sub-indices in 8 classes including population, heath, cultural, educational, infrastructural installations, urban services, and employment are considered in this research. To examine the assumptions of the research, fuzzy logic techniques and Williamson’s differential coefficiency have been used. The fuzzy model has been designed in three phases to estimate the level of the development of counties. In the next stage, the trends of spatial inequalities for counties have been specified by Williamson’s inequality indice model using the outputs of the fuzzy model.
4- Discussion
The level of development in the counties of Khorasan-e-Shomali Province over a 20-year-period (1986-2006) indicates that there has been a considerable difference in development between the first and the last county. For instance, there is considerable difference between the level of development in Bojnurd County in 1986 with a developmental indice of 0.63 and that of Shirvan County which was 0.38. However, this difference decreased to 0.06 in 1996.
In 2006, after the establishment of Khorasan-e-Shomali Province and the formation of its new counties (Garme, Jajram, Faruj, Maneh-o-Samalghan) that were not previously among its counties, the difference in development increased more than before and reached 0.45 between Bojnurd (first county:70 percent) and Maneh-o-Samalghan (last county: 25 percent). Analyzing inequality coefficiency in the province’s counties indicates that in a period of 20 years, the inequality factor have decreased from 27% to 15.5% between 1986 to 1996 and increased from 15.5% to 33.7% between 1996 to 2006. These results imply the fact that differences of inequalities in the counties of the province have been reduced during the first period and the counties have gained a relative convergence in development indicees. However, after dividing the province into 6 counties, the relative convergence has decreased and considerable differences between development values have led to an increase in standard deviation and consequently to inequality.
5- Conclusion and Suggestions
The results show that the level of development in the counties of Khorasan-e-Shomali Province has increased during the years between1986 to 2006. However, a relative convergence between the counties has not been achieved. This revealed that the dominant theory in the distribution of development and infrastructural services in the province was based on Core-Periphery Model so that in all the three studied periods, Bojnurd County was recognized to be the most utilized county in terms of infrastructural developmental indices. Thus, it can be stated that the main reasons for the existence of spatial inequality in Khorasan-e-Shomali Province are the formation of a Core-Periphery system with Bojnurd as its center, a lack of optimal distribution of facilities based on the population of each county, and an improper adminstrative division in 2006. In order to eliminate and improve inequaliteis, budgets should be allocated based on development level and facilities in every county. According to what mentioned above, a number of suggestions are presented:
- making the patterns of dispersion of facilities and current services more balanced;
- decentralizing Counties such as Bojnurd to add to the chance of all other Counties in using facilities and services;
- improving the condition of undeveloped Counties such as Farooj, Maneh and Solmaghan to reduce the rate of migrations;
- Revising land zonning according to currrent condition of Counties.
- Allocating credit based on Counties' achievment to the level of development.
- New division of labour in each region for specialisation and creation of regional balance.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • development
  • spatial inequality
  • Fuzzy logic
  • Williamson’s Differential Coefficient
  • Khorasan-e-Shomali