عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]چکیده [English]
Investigating climate changes, proposing appropriate adaptation strategies, and reducing the effects of climate changes on each region need precise and accurate predictions of climate variables there. These predictions depend on the outputs of the GCM models, but the multiplicity of models, the uncertainties in the outputs, and the differences in their results confound the researchers' choices. In this study, in order to simulate temperature and precipitation of Dez basin, the performance of 17 atmosphere circulation models from CORDEX-WAS (South Asia) based on Skill Score (SS) was evaluated. Then Simulation of temperature and precipitation climatic parameters for future periods in Dez basin was done for three 20-year periods (2070-2070, 2050-2050 and 2020-2039) for selected stations under two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Outputs showed that the simulations of the models are error and need to be corrected. The change factor method was used to correct the simulation error of the models and was selected based on (SS) a set of 10 with high skill score. The results of the selected models uncovered an 11 to 17 % decrease in precipitation rate for the RCP4.5 scenario, and 8 to 18 % for the RCP8.5 scenario for the whole basin whereas the autumn rains will increase. The output of the basin maximum temperature for the RCP4.5 emission scenario is projected to increase by 1.5 to 3 ° C and for the pessimistic scenario RCP8.5 predicts an increase of 5.8 to 1.6 ° C. This increase for the minimum temperature for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios is between 1.5 to 4.2 and 2.7 to 5.3 ° C, respectively.