Document Type : Research
Authors
1
PhD student in Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2
Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
Abstract
The rapid growth of rural tourism, along with the social, cultural, and environmental consequences of mass tourism, has highlighted the need to shift from purely economic approaches toward models grounded in ethics, sustainability, and accountability. Despite the expanding literature on sustainable tourism, a research gap remains in understanding the strategic drivers and future uncertainties influencing ethical tourism development, particularly in rural destinations. This study identifies and analyzes key drivers of ethical tourism development in Torqeba-Shandiz County, prioritizing them based on impact and future uncertainty. This applied-developmental research employs a descriptive-analytical method with a futures studies approach. The population consisted of 30 rural tourism experts selected through snowball sampling. Factors were identified using the PESTEL framework across local, national, and international levels. Initially, 56 factors were identified, and after expert evaluation, 18 key drivers were extracted. Results indicated that "destination ecological carrying capacity" (4.90), "integration of local economy with tourism ethics" (4.83), and "lack of policy enforcement guarantees" (4.77) are the most influential drivers. Among analytical levels, the local level, with an average impact of 4.54, plays the most significant role, while the national level, with an average uncertainty of 3.96, exhibits the greatest ambiguity and instability in realizing this model. The findings suggest that the future of ethical tourism depends not merely on environmental protection or ethical principles, but on synergy between efficient governance, local community empowerment, stakeholder accountability, ecological resilience, and policy coherence across levels. Therefore, developing ethical tourism requires a multi-level, forward-looking approach that strengthens local capacities, manages policy uncertainties, and aligns rural destinations with global standards of tourism ethics and sustainable development requirements.
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