An Analysis of Geopolitical Relations between Russia and Turkey in Regional Conflicts (From the Crimea Crisis to the End of 2025)

Articles in Press

Document Type : scientific-research article

Authors

Seyed Soroush Asadollahi ¹

Yashar Zaki ¹

Mahmoud Vasegh ¹

Ali Valigholizadeh ²

¹ Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran – Iran.

² Faculty of Humanities, Maragheh University, Maragheh, Iran.

https://doi.org/10.22067/jgrd.2026.96681.1613

Abstract

Turkey, as a regional power, and Russia, as a global power, play a decisive role in the geopolitical dynamics of West Asia, the Caucasus, and their peripheries, despite their long-standing rivalries. In recent years, influenced by conflicting and aligned interests, relations between these two countries have exhibited a complex, simultaneously competitive and cooperative nature. Employing a descriptive-analytical approach, this study aims to analyze the behavioral patterns of both nations, evaluating the configuration of relations between these two actors based on strategic documents and geopolitical dynamics. The chronological scope of the study covers a decade-long period from the onset of the Ukraine crisis (2014) to the end of 2025, representing a complete strategic transition period. Based in neoclassical realism theory, the analysis of the findings explains how unit-level intervening variables (such as decision-makers' perceptions and domestic power structures) have moderated the structural pressures of the anarchic international system, leading to the adoption of pragmatic and expedient patterns of action. Accordingly, through the professional management of crises in Ukraine, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Libya, the leaders of both countries have avoided direct confrontation while maintaining geopolitical competition, focusing instead on cooperative dimensions to secure national interests. The results of the research indicate that Russia-Turkey relations cannot be explained by traditional patterns of alliance or zero-sum confrontation. The pattern governing relations between the two countries in the period from 2014 to the end of 2025 has shifted from traditional confrontation toward "managed competition" based on a triad of conflict, competition, and cooperation. This unique pattern in today's transitioning world reflects the efforts of both countries to maintain strategic autonomy and functional management of crises, which remains anchored in elite perceptions (Putin and Erdogan) and the flexibility of the domestic power structure.

Keywords

Geopolitical Relations

Russia and Turkey

Neoclassical Realism

Competition and Cooperation

Regional Conflicts

Subjects

• The foundation and philosophy of the science of geography and geographic space

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