The decline in groundwater levels, reduced precipitation compared to long-term averages, and localized land subsidence in the plains of Marivan—recognized as the highest-precipitation county in Kurdistan Province—make proactive engagement grounded in a hazard risk management approach and futures studies imperative. This research aims to determine a structured planning pathway and provide problem-oriented solutions to ensure hydrological sustainability, mitigate drought risks, and address their multifaceted impacts within the region.At the core of this futures study, a panel of 19 experts comprising academic specialists, executive officials, local experts, and village dehyars was selected via purposive sampling using the Delphi technique. The complex process of identifying key driving forces and formulating plausible future scenarios was systematically conducted utilizing specialized analytical software, namely MicMac and Scenario Wizard.Through rigorous driver analysis, it became evident that achieving hydrological sustainability and securing a desirable future for Marivan’s water resources under drought stress is not merely a technical or hydrological challenge.Instead, it constitutes a complex socio-ecological system where natural environmental processes are deeply intertwined with economic structures, political policies, institutional frameworks, and spatial arrangements. Important drivers identified include climate change, water governance quality, rural poverty, economic fluctuations caused by heavy reliance on traditional agriculture, systemic management approaches, cross-sectoral governmental synergy, capacity development, local institution-building, social participation, adherence to optimal cropping patterns and watershed carrying capacity, growth-oriented regional development with internal disparities, and shifting land-use patterns.Furthermore, the study outlined three distinct futures for Marivan’s water management: Scenario I, “Smart Water Resources Architecture:The Symphony of Water, Society, and Market Harmony,” capturing all positive and ideal states; Scenario II, “The Precipice of Collapse: Resource Deadlock and the End of Prudence,” depicting adverse conditions; and Scenario III, “Turbulence of Prudence,”reflecting intermediate and unstable policy environments.Ultimately, Scenario I was chosen as the primary target compass, leading to the development of strategic executive roadmaps.