Document Type : scientific-research article
Authors
1 Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Humanities-Department of Political Geography- Tarbiat Modares university
2 Doctoral student of Political Geography, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
Border areas, due to their spatial-political characteristics and management roles at various scales, hold a special position in political strategies. These regions, especially for political systems, are crucial in ensuring domestic stability, security, and regional cooperation. The eastern borders of Iran, particularly the Zirkoh County in South Khorasan province, which shares a border with Afghanistan and stretches over 116 kilometers, hold significant importance in national and regional development strategies. This paper analyzes potential scenarios for the development of Zirkoh County. Future studies with a flexible structural approach allow for the prediction, assessment, and evaluation of developmental systems. The research is descriptive and analytical, utilizing content analysis to examine the variables influencing Zirkoh County's development. A questionnaire distributed to 15 regional planning experts was used for data collection, and the data were analyzed through the Structural Analysis MicMac method. The scenarios were designed using Scenario Wizard software. The results identified 29 influential variables for the development of Zirkoh County, of which 16 were considered as primary variables. Based on these variables, three scenarios were designed: 1) Crisis Condition Strategy: Changing attitudes towards ethnicities, establishing spatial equality, and strengthening international relations; 2) Crisis or Semi-Crisis Status Strategy: Increasing the role of the government in reducing inflation, spatial equality, and strengthening communication and international pathways; 3) Status Quo Continuity Policy: Fostering greater social interaction, improving governance, and implementing appropriate demographic policies. These scenarios are based on social, economic, and security changes in the region and can provide suitable strategies for the sustainable development of this border region.
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