Journal of Geography and Regional Development

Identifying Drivers of Regional Development Promotion with a Futures Studies Approach (Case Study: Zirkuh County)

Document Type : Research-Case Study

Authors

Mostafa Ghaderi Hajat 1
Mohammad Shahab Ahmadi 2
Arman Karimi 2

1 Associate Professor of Political Geography, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

2 PhD Student in Political Geography, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22067/jgrd.2025.90011.1484
Abstract
In a networked world, interactions are in a state of flux, but border areas are still of particular importance. These spaces occupy a special place in political strategies due to their spatial-political characteristics and managerial roles at different scales. They are especially important for political systems to ensure internal stability and security. The eastern border of Iran, especially Zirkuh County in South Khorasan Province, which shares a 116-km border with Afghanistan, is of paramount importance in national and regional development strategies. The present article looks into possible scenarios for the development of Zirkuh County. Future studies, thanks to their flexible structural approach, enable predicting and evaluating development systems. This research investigates variables underpinning the development of Zirkuh County in a descriptive and analytical manner using the content analysis method. To do so, a questionnaire was distributed among 15 regional planning experts to collect data. Then, data analysis was conducted using the Miq-Maq structural analysis method. Research scenarios were designed using the Scenario Wizard software. The results yielded 29 variables underpinning the development of Zirkuh County, of which 16 were considered as primary variables. Informed by these variables, three scenarios were formulated for development: 1- Crisis strategy: changing attitudes to ethnicities, establishing spatial equality, and strengthening international relations; 2- Crisis or semi-crisis strategy: fostering the role of the government in reducing inflation, spatial equality, and consolidating communication and international routes; 3- Strategy of keeping the status quo: developing more social interaction and appropriate population policies. These scenarios, driven by social, economic, and security changes in the region, can provide appropriate solutions for the sustainable development of this border region.

Keywords

Zirkuh
Regional Development
Future Studies
Decentralization
Subjects
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