Document Type : scientific-research article
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Abstract
Objectives: Climate change is a major environmental challenge of recent decades, significantly impacting water resources and increasing the frequency of hydro-climatic events like floods. This research will evaluate the effects of climate change on flood indicators specifically return probability, intensity, and duration—in the Dez basin over the coming decades. Additionally, the study will include climate change analysis, uncertainty assessment, and the application of bias correction methods as part of its phased research goals aimed at enhancing risk management.
Method: This research analyzed temperature and precipitation data from five climate models sourced from two databases, CORDEX-WAS and 2W2E. The models HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 were selected to simulate three 20-year periods under three different scenarios. After calibrating the SWAT model for daily flow simulation, micro-flow data were incorporated to predict future flow, and flood-related indices were calculated.
Findings: Overall, the results indicate a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature compared to the observation period, and the 2W2E database predicts a greater decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature than the CORDEX-WAS database for both models. The indicators of flood recurrence probability and duration decreased in both databases. However, only the flood magnitude indicator in CORDEX-WAS showed an increasing trend despite the decrease in precipitation, indicating an increase in extreme events under the influence of climate change.
Conclusion: This research indicates that future climate change is likely to reduce the probability and duration of flood occurrences, although the magnitude of floods may increase under specific conditions. These findings underscore the need for effective planning and implementation of flood risk management strategies to address the varied impacts of climate change.
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