The Climatic Vulnerability and Sustainability Strategies for Water Resources in North Karoun Basin

Document Type : case study

Authors

Bijan Saberi ¹

Dariush Rahimi ²

Javad Khoshhal Dastjerdi ²

¹ PhD in Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, Isfahan University, Isfahan, Iran

² Associate Professor in Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, Isfahan University, Isfahan, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22067/jgrd.2023.81647.1261

Abstract

Some indicators of the climatic vulnerability of water resources are water stress, dry wetlands and lakes, decrease of river flow, mitigation of aquifers’ level of water, and imitated water supply for drinking and agriculture. The North Karun water basin plays a significant role in sustainable supply of water resources in the southwest and the central plateau of Iran. The drought of the basin has decreased by 50% supplying the water and the level of aquifers. The rate of change of basin discharge is 63%, indicating the high vulnerability of water resources. The analysis of climate vulnerability index (1990-2020) showed that the most significant elements constitute flow variability index (W=1.987), drought frequency (W=1.658), agricultural water (W=1.332), and aquifer reservoir deficit (W=1.09). The sub-basins Beheshtabad, Vanak, and Lordegan showed high vulnerability index and Bazoft and Kouhrang showed the lowest vulnerability. For future studying of the basin, the climatic condition of 2020-24 were used considering the climatic changes of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the sixth climate change report, and negative and positive drivers of the basin's development plans. Implementing negative propellants will increase the vulnerability index, and implementing strategies based on positive drivers (adapting to climate change, modifying consumption pattern, and adjusting transferable water (from 770 to 212)) will decrease climate vulnerability index in 2020-2040 vision. If the current situation continues, the vulnerability index, the social tensions, and climatic migrations will increase. Modifying usage strategies, adjusting development plans, selecting the climate change adaptation strategies, and modifying water consumption pattern based on ecological potential will increase the resilience and sustainability of water resources.
 

Keywords

Climate Vulnerability

Water Resources

Northern Karun

Drivers

Subjects

• Natural geography and environmental planning

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