The Makran coasts, endowed with unique natural, cultural, and geopolitical capacities, outline a broad prospect for the development of sustainable and forward-looking coastal tourism in Iran. The present study aims to identify and analyze the key driving forces influencing the sustainable development of tourism at the level of urban settlements in the Makoran coastal region. From an ontological and epistemological perspective, this research falls within the pragmatic paradigm. Accordingly, both qualitative and quantitative approaches have been employed to address the research problem. After initial studies of documents and interviews with stakeholders, influential variables and situations in the environmental, socio-cultural, economic, physical, and institutional-political dimensions were provided to experts in the form of a questionnaire.

In order to extract the most significant driving forces using the Delphi method, 90 drivers were extracted in the first round and 54 drivers in the second round in 5 dimensions. The results of the matrix impact analysis indicate that the tourism system of the Makoran region is likely to move toward an unsustainable development in the future. In shaping this condition, economic drivers with an average score of 121.7, environmental drivers (89.5), and socio-cultural drivers (86.5) exert greater influence than institutional–political drivers with an average of 83.8 and physical-spatial drivers with an average of 84.5.

Furthermore, the drivers of attention to tourism branding, the creation of conditions for attracting investment, and the increase of sustainable employment in tourism, with scores of 141, 139, and 137 respectively, were identified as the most influential drivers. Meanwhile, the availability of a clear comprehensive plan, the existence of transparent regulations for continuous evaluation, and stability in the policymaking of the Makoran Coastal Development Organization, with scores of 151, 151, and 148 respectively, were recognized as the most affected drivers in the future sustainable development of tourism in the region.