Document Type : علمی- پژوهشی
Authors
1 ّFaculty University
2 Faculty University
Abstract
In today's world, regional inequalities are a pervasive and growing phenomenon. Therefore, spatial and regional planning has received significant attention to reduce inequality and regional imbalance. The aim of this research is the scenario-based future development of Ardabil province. This research is applied in terms of purpose, qualitative in terms of data nature, and document-survey in terms of data collection method. The statistical population in this study consisted of 25 regional planning experts and specialists. The primary variables were determined using the Delphi model and distributing the questionnaire among the experts as the statistical population of the study. Various future study techniques, including Delphi technique, Cross-Impact Analysis, and Scenario Writing using SenarioWizard software, were used in data processing. after obtaining the opinions of experts and specialists, 42 possible situations for 14 factors were defined for precise measurement in this stage. The possible situations for each factor were different from other factors, and for each factor, three optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic situations were defined, with the optimistic assumption representing the best condition, the neutral assumption representing the continuation of the current trend and situation, and ultimately the pessimistic assumption representing the least favorable situation for the key development factors of the province. The results indicate that in order to reduce inequality and regional imbalance, we need to focus on various areas such as investment attraction, agriculture, water, transportation, management, support for production, extraction of energy resources, employment, and tourism development. This issue can only be achieved through a change in management perspective and improvement of planning methods.
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