Document Type : case study
Authors
1 PhD Candidate in Urbanism, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tehran Central Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor of Urban Planning, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Urban Planning, Tehran Central Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Since the world has changed drastically in various issues, the development and expansion of informal settlements have also been changed. The formation and typology process of informal settlements has changed and become more complex. The situation necessitates futures study on the development of informal settlement. Using futures study theory, this study investigated into the development of informal settlements and tried to present possible futures scenarios in 2031 horizon. The possible scenario will be on controlling the expansion and development of the settlements. The data of the descriptive-analytical study were obtained through field and documentary studies. Cross-effects analysis method and scenario wizard software were used to analyze the variables. Using the options of scenario wizard software, 3 strong scenarios, 4 static scenarios, and 5 critical scenarios were extracted. The results showed that the status of 27% of informal settlements in the futures will be favorable and 67% will be static and critical. Tehran metropolis will face with three category of scenarios on the development of informal settlements in the futures. The most suitable scenario category is the first one. The category is based on the design and suitable impact of policies and programs for providing housing, and for recognizing informal ownership, its complete control, planning based on the development of settlements to enhance the safety of the neighborhoods, and establishing effective communication between the councils and people to solve residents’ problems. The solutions for promoting the development of informal settlements are: making the ownership of lands formal, establishing an organization for organizing informal settlements to reduce the multiplicity of administrative works and lack of coordination, and creating inexpensive housing.
Keywords
Main Subjects
- امانپور، س.، ملکی، س.، صفاییپور، م.، و امیری فهلیانی، م. ر. (1398). تدوین سناریوها و ارائه راهبردهای مؤثر در تابآوری اجتماعی آینده (مطالعة موردی: کلانشهر اهواز). فصلنامه جغرافیایی اجتماعی شهری، 6(2)، 255-273.
- انوری، ن.، و دریاباری، ج. (1397). بررسی مسائل مدیریتی حریم کلانشهر تهران درارتباط با روند فعلی وآتی تحولات کالبدی و جمعیتی. فصلنامه نگرشهای نو در جغرافیای انسانی، 10(2)، 238-215.
- ایراندوست، ک. (1389). سکونتگاههای غیررسمی و اسطوره حاشیه نشینی (چاپ اول). تهران: شرکت پردازش و برنامهریزی شهری.
- پایا، ع. (1384). روش های آیندهنگاری تکنولوژی. تهران: بنیاد توسعه فردا .
- حاتمینژاد، ح.، و حسین اوغلی، ج. (1388). بررسی تطبیقی برخی شاخصها در سکونتگاههای غیررسمی اطراف کلان شهر تهران (مطالعه موردی: حصار امیر و شهرک انقلاب). نشریه تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی، 9(12)، 7-29.
- حاجیانی، ا. (1391). مبانی، اصول و روشهای آیندهپژوهی (چاپ اول). تهران: انتشارات دانشگاه امام صادق (ع).
- زیاری، ک. ا.، و ربانی، ط. (1397). آیندهپژوهی: پارادایمی نوین در برنامهریزی با تأکید بر برنامهریزی شهری و منطقهای (مبانی، مفاهیم، رویکردها و روشها). تهران: انتشارات دانشگاه تهران.
- سرور، ر.، روستا، م.، و حسینی ایمنی، ح. (1389). آیندهنگری گسترش سکونتگاههای غیررسمی در مناطق شهری آذربایجان غربی و راهبرهای مدیریتی آن. مطالعات مدیریت شهری، 2(2)، 1-20.
- شاه حسینی، پ. (1392). بررسی سیر تحول سکونتگاههای غیررسمی با تأکید بر ایران (چاپ اول). تهران: سازمان مطالعه و تدوین کتب علوم انسانی دانشگاه ها (سمت).
- فنی، ز.، و کاظمی، ل. (1395). آیندهپژوهی و سناریو نگاری برای برنامهریزی توسعه محلهای برپایه تحلیل سیستمی با مطالعه محله سنگلج تهران. فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی سیاستگذاری عمومی، 6(21)، 16-29.
- گیلبرت، آ.، وجوزف، گ. (1375). شهرها، فقر و توسعه: شهرنشینی در جهان سوم (پ. کریمی ناصری، مترجم) (چاپ اول). تهران: اداره کل روابط عمومی و بینالملل شهرداری تهران.
- مرکز آمار ایران. (1395). سرشماری عمومی نفوس مسکن. نتایج کلی استان تهران
- ملکیفر، ع. (1386). الفبای آیندهپژوهی. مطالعات بسیج، 10(34)، 143-152.
- Austin, V., Holloway, C., Ossul Vermehren, I., Dumbuya, A., Barbareschi, G., & Walker, J. (2021). Give us the chance to be part of you, we want our voices to be heard: Assistive technology as a mediator of participation in (formal and informal) citizenship activities for persons with disabilities who are Slum Dwellers in Freetown, Sierra Leone. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(11), 1-30.
- Barzegar, S., Heydari, T., & Anbarloo, A. (2019). Analysis of informal settlements with the approach of livability (Case study: Informal neighborhoods of Zanjan city). Regional Planning, 9(33), 137-152.
- Batrouni, M., Bertaux, A., & Nicolle, Ch. (2018). Scenario analysis, from Big Data toblack swan. Computer Science Review, 28, 131–139.
- Bouwmeester, J., & Hartmann, T. (2021). Unraveling the self-made city: The spatial impact of informal real estate markets in informal settlements. Cities, 108, 102966.
- Byambadorj, T., Amati, M., & Ruming, K. J. (2011). Twenty-first century nomadic city: Ger districts and barriers to the implementation of the Ulaanbaatar city master plan. Journal of Asia Pacific Viewpoint, 52(2), 165–177.
- Chen, J., John, R., Sun, G., Fan, F., Henebry, G., & Fernández-Giménez, M.… & Qi, J. (2018). Prospects for sustainability of social-ecological systems (SES) on the Mongolian Plateau: Five critical Journal of Environmental Research Letters, 13, 123004.
- Cohen, B. (2005). Urbanization in developing countries: Current trendy future projection and key challenge for Technology in Society, 28(1-2), 63-80.
- Fan, P., Chen, J., & John, R. (2016). Urbanization and environmental change during theeconomic transition on the Mongolian plateau: Hohhot and Ulaanbaatar. Environmental Research, 144, 96-122.
- Friesen, J., Rausch, L., Pelz, P. F., & Fürnkranz, J. (2018). Determining factors for slum growth with predictive data mining methods. Urban Science, 2(3), 81.
- Goodwin, P., & Wright, G. (2001). Enhancing strategy evaluation in scenario planning:a role for decision analysis. Journal of Management Studies, 38(1), 1-16.
- Inostroza, L. (2017). Informal urban development in Latin American urban peripheries: Spatial assessment in Bogotá, Lima and Santiago de Chile. Journal of Landscape and Urban Planning, 165, 267–279.
- Jemala, M. (2010). Evolution of foresight in the global historical context. Foresight, 12(4), 65-81.
- Kasarda, J. D., & Crenshaw, E. (1991). Third world urbanization: Dimensions, theories, and determinants. Journal of Annual Review of Sociology, 17(1), 467–501.
- Kononiuk, A., & Glinska, E. (2015). Foresight in a small enterprise: A case study. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 213(2015), 971-976.
- Liu, S., Ding, P., Xue, B., Zhu, H., & GAO, J. (2020). Urban sustainability evaluation based on the DPSIR dynamic model: A case study in Shaanxi province, China. Sustainability, 12(18), 7460.
- Mosavi Kazemi, S. M., & Almasi, R. (2019). The role of neighborhood houses in realization of urban management purposes (Case study: Region seven of metropolitan Tehran). Urban Management, 18(54), 183-196.
- Newman, L. (2007). Basics of social research: Qualitative and quantitative approaches (2nd). United States: Allyn & Bacon.
- Nygren, N. A. (2019). Scenario workshops as a tool for participatory planning in acase of lake management. Futures, 107(2019), 29-44.
- Park, H., Fan, P., John, R., & Chen, J. (2017). Urbanization on the Mongolian plateau after economic reform: Changes and causes. Journal of Applied Geography, 86, 118–127.
- Purwar, D., Sliuzas, R., & Flacke, J. (2020). Assessment of cascading effects of typhoons on water and sanitation services: A case study of informal settlements in Malabon, Philippines. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 51, 101755.
- Satterthwaite, D., Archer, D., Colenbrander, S., Dodman, D., Hardoy, J., Mitlin, D., & Patel, S. (2020). Building resilience to climate change in informal settlements. One Earth, 2(2), 143 -156
- Silvonen, T. (2021). One step forward, two steps back? Shifting patterns of participation in a former informal settlement in Mexico City. Environment and Urbanization, 33(2), 2-18.
- Veisi, F. (2017). Comparative analysis of the patterns of informal settlements case study: Marivan city. Geography and Development Iranian Journal, 15(46), 207-224.
- Vergara-Perucich, F., & Arias-Loyola, M. (2020). Community mapping with a public participation geographic information system in informal settlements. Geographical Research, 59(2), 268-284.
- Vivier, E., De Jongh, D., & Thompson, L. (2020). Public leadership and participation: understanding the experiences of South African local government officials’ engagement within informal settlements in the Western Cape. Public Management Review, 23(12), 1789-1807.
- Weimer-Jehle, W. (2018). Constructing consistent scenarios using cross-impact metrics. HEMF Working Paper, No. 05/2020. Retrieved from https:// ssrn.com/ sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3679934
- Zeilhofer, P., & Valdinir Pizza, T. (2008). GIS and ordination techniques for evaluation of environmental impact in informal settlements: A case study from Cuiaba, Central Brazil. Applied Geography, 28(1), 1-15.
Send comment about this article